Going beyond GDP to nowcast Well-Being using retail market data

Riccardo Guidotti, Michele Coscia, Dino Pedreschi, Diego Pennacchioli

Research output: Contribution in Book/Catalog/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

One of the most used measures of the economic health of a nation is the Gross Domestic Product (GDP): the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP, prosperity and well-being of the citizens of a country have been shown to be highly correlated. However, GDP is an imperfect measure in many respects. GDP usually takes a lot of time to be estimated and arguably the well-being of the people is not quantifiable simply by the market value of the products available to them. In this paper we use a quantification of the average sophistication of satisfied needs of a population as an alternative to GDP. We show that this quantification can be calculated more easily than GDP and it is a very promising predictor of the GDP value, anticipating its estimation by six months. The measure is arguably a more multifaceted evaluation of the well-being of the population, as it tells us more about how people are satisfying their needs. Our study is based on a large dataset of retail micro transactions happening across the Italian territory.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Network Science - 12th International Conference and School, NetSci-X 2016, Proceedings
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages29-42
Number of pages14
Volume9564
ISBN (Print)9783319283609
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016
Event12th International Conference and School on Advances in Network Science, NetSci-X 2016 - Wroclaw, Poland
Duration: 11 Jan 201613 Jan 2016

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume9564
ISSN (Print)03029743
ISSN (Electronic)16113349

Conference

Conference12th International Conference and School on Advances in Network Science, NetSci-X 2016
CountryPoland
CityWroclaw
Period11/01/1613/01/16

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Guidotti, R., Coscia, M., Pedreschi, D., & Pennacchioli, D. (2016). Going beyond GDP to nowcast Well-Being using retail market data. In Advances in Network Science - 12th International Conference and School, NetSci-X 2016, Proceedings (Vol. 9564, pp. 29-42). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics); Vol. 9564). Springer Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-28361-6_3