Crude oil affecting the biomass of the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus: comparing a simple and complex population model

Lisette De Hoop, Ole-Jacob Broch, A.J. Hendriks, Frédérik De Laender

Résultats de recherche: Contribution à un journal/une revueArticle

Résumé

In the current study differences were evaluated between a complex 3D multistage population model (SINMOD) and a simpler consumer-resource population model for estimating the effects of crude oil on the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus. The SINTEF OSCAR model was used to simulate hypothetical oil spills in the Lofoten area in 1995, 1997, and 2001. Both population models simulated a negligible effect of crude oil on the Calanus’ biomass when assuming low species sensitivity. The simple model estimated a larger effect on the biomass (up to a 100% decline) compared to the complex model (maximum decline of 60–80%) at high species sensitivity to crude oil. These differences may be related to the inclusion of copepod advection in the complex model. Our study showed that if little data is available to parameterize a model, or if computational resources are scarce, the simple model could be used for risk screening. Nevertheless, the possibility of including a dilution factor for time-varying biomass should be examined to improve the estimations of the simple model. The complex model should be used for a more in depth risk analysis, as it includes physical processes such as the drift of organisms and differentiation between developmental stages.
langue originaleAnglais
Pages (de - à)197–206
journalMarine Environmental Research
Volume119
Les DOIs
étatPublié - 2016

Empreinte digitale

Calanus finmarchicus
crude oil
Copepoda
Biomass
Crude oil
oils
biomass
risk screening
Calanus
risk analysis
oil spills
Oil spills
Advection
Risk analysis
resource
developmental stage
oil spill
Dilution
Screening
advection

Citer ceci

@article{2e964d1849b14cab9d45ce11f7596729,
title = "Crude oil affecting the biomass of the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus: comparing a simple and complex population model",
abstract = "In the current study differences were evaluated between a complex 3D multistage population model (SINMOD) and a simpler consumer-resource population model for estimating the effects of crude oil on the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus. The SINTEF OSCAR model was used to simulate hypothetical oil spills in the Lofoten area in 1995, 1997, and 2001. Both population models simulated a negligible effect of crude oil on the Calanus’ biomass when assuming low species sensitivity. The simple model estimated a larger effect on the biomass (up to a 100{\%} decline) compared to the complex model (maximum decline of 60–80{\%}) at high species sensitivity to crude oil. These differences may be related to the inclusion of copepod advection in the complex model. Our study showed that if little data is available to parameterize a model, or if computational resources are scarce, the simple model could be used for risk screening. Nevertheless, the possibility of including a dilution factor for time-varying biomass should be examined to improve the estimations of the simple model. The complex model should be used for a more in depth risk analysis, as it includes physical processes such as the drift of organisms and differentiation between developmental stages.",
author = "{De Hoop}, Lisette and Ole-Jacob Broch and A.J. Hendriks and {De Laender}, Fr{\'e}d{\'e}rik",
year = "2016",
doi = "10.1016/j.marenvres.2016.06.008",
language = "English",
volume = "119",
pages = "197–206",
journal = "Marine Environmental Research",
issn = "0141-1136",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Crude oil affecting the biomass of the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus : comparing a simple and complex population model. / De Hoop, Lisette; Broch, Ole-Jacob; Hendriks, A.J.; De Laender, Frédérik.

Dans: Marine Environmental Research, Vol 119, 2016, p. 197–206.

Résultats de recherche: Contribution à un journal/une revueArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Crude oil affecting the biomass of the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus

T2 - comparing a simple and complex population model

AU - De Hoop, Lisette

AU - Broch, Ole-Jacob

AU - Hendriks, A.J.

AU - De Laender, Frédérik

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - In the current study differences were evaluated between a complex 3D multistage population model (SINMOD) and a simpler consumer-resource population model for estimating the effects of crude oil on the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus. The SINTEF OSCAR model was used to simulate hypothetical oil spills in the Lofoten area in 1995, 1997, and 2001. Both population models simulated a negligible effect of crude oil on the Calanus’ biomass when assuming low species sensitivity. The simple model estimated a larger effect on the biomass (up to a 100% decline) compared to the complex model (maximum decline of 60–80%) at high species sensitivity to crude oil. These differences may be related to the inclusion of copepod advection in the complex model. Our study showed that if little data is available to parameterize a model, or if computational resources are scarce, the simple model could be used for risk screening. Nevertheless, the possibility of including a dilution factor for time-varying biomass should be examined to improve the estimations of the simple model. The complex model should be used for a more in depth risk analysis, as it includes physical processes such as the drift of organisms and differentiation between developmental stages.

AB - In the current study differences were evaluated between a complex 3D multistage population model (SINMOD) and a simpler consumer-resource population model for estimating the effects of crude oil on the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus. The SINTEF OSCAR model was used to simulate hypothetical oil spills in the Lofoten area in 1995, 1997, and 2001. Both population models simulated a negligible effect of crude oil on the Calanus’ biomass when assuming low species sensitivity. The simple model estimated a larger effect on the biomass (up to a 100% decline) compared to the complex model (maximum decline of 60–80%) at high species sensitivity to crude oil. These differences may be related to the inclusion of copepod advection in the complex model. Our study showed that if little data is available to parameterize a model, or if computational resources are scarce, the simple model could be used for risk screening. Nevertheless, the possibility of including a dilution factor for time-varying biomass should be examined to improve the estimations of the simple model. The complex model should be used for a more in depth risk analysis, as it includes physical processes such as the drift of organisms and differentiation between developmental stages.

U2 - 10.1016/j.marenvres.2016.06.008

DO - 10.1016/j.marenvres.2016.06.008

M3 - Article

VL - 119

SP - 197

EP - 206

JO - Marine Environmental Research

JF - Marine Environmental Research

SN - 0141-1136

ER -