Uncertainty about welfare effects of consumption fluctuations

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This paper proposes Bayesian estimates for welfare effects of consumption fluctuations and growth. Annual data from 82 developed and developing countries indicate a large degree of uncertainty as regards point estimates. Moreover, the comparison between the welfare gain from consumption stabilization and the welfare gain from growth yields inconclusive results for many developed and developing countries. These findings suggest the need for caution in drawing policy conclusions from point estimates.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)35-62
Number of pages28
JournalEuropean Economic Review
Volume59
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2013

Fingerprint

Fluctuations
Welfare effects
Uncertainty
Welfare gains
Developing countries
Developed countries
Stabilization

Keywords

  • Bayesian inference
  • Business cycles
  • Growth
  • Welfare

Cite this

@article{9d77efd3d6cd49149f4b35dffb95958e,
title = "Uncertainty about welfare effects of consumption fluctuations",
abstract = "This paper proposes Bayesian estimates for welfare effects of consumption fluctuations and growth. Annual data from 82 developed and developing countries indicate a large degree of uncertainty as regards point estimates. Moreover, the comparison between the welfare gain from consumption stabilization and the welfare gain from growth yields inconclusive results for many developed and developing countries. These findings suggest the need for caution in drawing policy conclusions from point estimates.",
keywords = "Bayesian inference, Business cycles, Growth, Welfare",
author = "Romain Houssa",
year = "2013",
month = "4",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.12.006",
language = "English",
volume = "59",
pages = "35--62",
journal = "European Economic Review",
issn = "0014-2921",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Uncertainty about welfare effects of consumption fluctuations. / Houssa, Romain.

In: European Economic Review, Vol. 59, 01.04.2013, p. 35-62.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Uncertainty about welfare effects of consumption fluctuations

AU - Houssa, Romain

PY - 2013/4/1

Y1 - 2013/4/1

N2 - This paper proposes Bayesian estimates for welfare effects of consumption fluctuations and growth. Annual data from 82 developed and developing countries indicate a large degree of uncertainty as regards point estimates. Moreover, the comparison between the welfare gain from consumption stabilization and the welfare gain from growth yields inconclusive results for many developed and developing countries. These findings suggest the need for caution in drawing policy conclusions from point estimates.

AB - This paper proposes Bayesian estimates for welfare effects of consumption fluctuations and growth. Annual data from 82 developed and developing countries indicate a large degree of uncertainty as regards point estimates. Moreover, the comparison between the welfare gain from consumption stabilization and the welfare gain from growth yields inconclusive results for many developed and developing countries. These findings suggest the need for caution in drawing policy conclusions from point estimates.

KW - Bayesian inference

KW - Business cycles

KW - Growth

KW - Welfare

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84873852761&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.12.006

DO - 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.12.006

M3 - Article

VL - 59

SP - 35

EP - 62

JO - European Economic Review

JF - European Economic Review

SN - 0014-2921

ER -