Simulating regional urban development under land use planning constraints

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract

Abstract

The primary objective of our Regional “Urban” Growth model (RUG) is to simulate, at a regional scale, the spatial evolution of urban and semi-urban land uses according to
socio-economic scenarios that sketch individual preferences and regional planning options adopted within different future socio-economic contexts. The model considers urban
land uses to be not only a function of location accessibility but also to depend on
[hypoth. 1] location preferences, i.e. local externalities (Caruso et al., 2005), and
[hypoth. 2] land use planning choices (Shackley and Deanwood, 2003).
We built RUG as a residential model with no direct consideration of commercial, industrial, services or leisure land uses. In this framework, the term urban should be understood as any human settlement whether in cities, suburbs or rural zones. It is important to note that RUG does not aim to understand why people go to a particular location, but instead represents where people go when they make choices according to a particular set of goals and preferences. The three main steps followed to develop our model are : [1] the choice of the mathematical functions, [2] the tests and validation of the model structure and [3] the calibration with observed data in two regions of England . Subsequently, the RUG output is going to be used within the RegIS2 tool, to assess impacts on four regional sectors.
This research mainly investigates the mathematical functions that best represent the mechanisms of residential location choice. The core of RUG is a combination of
[1] an accessibility component, based on the well-known distance decay function,
[2] a measure of individual preferences, based on local amenities, after Caruso et al. (2005) and [3] an original representation of the regional planning constraints that we propose. The result is a non-linear model based mainly on different types of exponential functions to combine the variables and their parameters.
Monte Carlo-based uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are performed on the model, using SIMLAB 2.2, a public domain software developed by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (Crosetto and Tarantola, 2001).
Regional space is seen as a regular grid of cells of 1 km resolution. Both spatial and non-spatial data are used. Spatial data include [1] population location at baseline time ,
[2] measures of location accessibility , [3] percentage of urban and semi-urban land uses and [4] location of potentially restricted areas . Non-spatial data include [1] the regional population at time t and [2] the occupancy rate (average number of people per household) at time t.
First results give good confidence in the methodology, e.g. the modification of the local externality parameters returns various urban development patterns that are plausible.
The resulting output product of RUG has been formatted in such a way that it can also be used as an input to the meta-models of the RegIS2 project, a scientific partnership of the University of Louvain and five British Universities . The objective of RegIS2 is the production of a computer tool which can be used by non scientists (planners and other stakeholders) to evaluate future climate and socio-economic change impacts on agriculture, biodiversity, hydrology and coastal zones in two regions of England, namely East Anglia and the North West. In this context, RUG has been built as a stand-alone model (within MATLAB7) to allow a user to set most parameters through an interface; the choices being made either from personal knowledge or from expert judgment (predefined socio-economic scenarios). The RegIS2 contract does not include a proposal to model urban land use change but the previous RegIS project highlighted the major interests of regional stakeholders in urban land use planning. It was considered to be both appropriate and useful, therefore, to examine what could be achieved within the RegIS2 framework with a simple urban land use model, such as RUG, that allows exploration by planners of the environmental consequences of alternative urban development pathways.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 2005
EventEuropean colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography - Tomar, Portugal
Duration: 9 Sep 200513 Sep 2005

Scientific committee

Scientific committeeEuropean colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography
CountryPortugal
CityTomar
Period9/09/0513/09/05

Fingerprint

land use planning
urban development
urban growth
land use
accessibility
regional planning
stakeholder
residential location
human settlement
uncertainty analysis
European Commission
amenity
spatial data

Keywords

  • Planning
  • Regional scale
  • Urban model
  • Mathematical development
  • Urban and semi-urban land use
  • Local externalities
  • Uncertainty analysis
  • Sensitivity analysis

Cite this

Fontaine, C. (2005). Simulating regional urban development under land use planning constraints. Abstract from European colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography, Tomar, Portugal.
Fontaine, Corentin. / Simulating regional urban development under land use planning constraints. Abstract from European colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography, Tomar, Portugal.
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keywords = "Planning, Regional scale, Urban model, Mathematical development, Urban and semi-urban land use, Local externalities, Uncertainty analysis, Sensitivity analysis",
author = "Corentin Fontaine",
year = "2005",
language = "English",
note = "European colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography ; Conference date: 09-09-2005 Through 13-09-2005",

}

Fontaine, C 2005, 'Simulating regional urban development under land use planning constraints', European colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography, Tomar, Portugal, 9/09/05 - 13/09/05.

Simulating regional urban development under land use planning constraints. / Fontaine, Corentin.

2005. Abstract from European colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography, Tomar, Portugal.

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract

TY - CONF

T1 - Simulating regional urban development under land use planning constraints

AU - Fontaine, Corentin

PY - 2005

Y1 - 2005

N2 - The primary objective of our Regional “Urban” Growth model (RUG) is to simulate, at a regional scale, the spatial evolution of urban and semi-urban land uses according to socio-economic scenarios that sketch individual preferences and regional planning options adopted within different future socio-economic contexts. The model considers urban land uses to be not only a function of location accessibility but also to depend on [hypoth. 1] location preferences, i.e. local externalities (Caruso et al., 2005), and [hypoth. 2] land use planning choices (Shackley and Deanwood, 2003).We built RUG as a residential model with no direct consideration of commercial, industrial, services or leisure land uses. In this framework, the term urban should be understood as any human settlement whether in cities, suburbs or rural zones. It is important to note that RUG does not aim to understand why people go to a particular location, but instead represents where people go when they make choices according to a particular set of goals and preferences. The three main steps followed to develop our model are : [1] the choice of the mathematical functions, [2] the tests and validation of the model structure and [3] the calibration with observed data in two regions of England . Subsequently, the RUG output is going to be used within the RegIS2 tool, to assess impacts on four regional sectors.This research mainly investigates the mathematical functions that best represent the mechanisms of residential location choice. The core of RUG is a combination of [1] an accessibility component, based on the well-known distance decay function, [2] a measure of individual preferences, based on local amenities, after Caruso et al. (2005) and [3] an original representation of the regional planning constraints that we propose. The result is a non-linear model based mainly on different types of exponential functions to combine the variables and their parameters.Monte Carlo-based uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are performed on the model, using SIMLAB 2.2, a public domain software developed by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (Crosetto and Tarantola, 2001).Regional space is seen as a regular grid of cells of 1 km resolution. Both spatial and non-spatial data are used. Spatial data include [1] population location at baseline time ,[2] measures of location accessibility , [3] percentage of urban and semi-urban land uses and [4] location of potentially restricted areas . Non-spatial data include [1] the regional population at time t and [2] the occupancy rate (average number of people per household) at time t.First results give good confidence in the methodology, e.g. the modification of the local externality parameters returns various urban development patterns that are plausible.The resulting output product of RUG has been formatted in such a way that it can also be used as an input to the meta-models of the RegIS2 project, a scientific partnership of the University of Louvain and five British Universities . The objective of RegIS2 is the production of a computer tool which can be used by non scientists (planners and other stakeholders) to evaluate future climate and socio-economic change impacts on agriculture, biodiversity, hydrology and coastal zones in two regions of England, namely East Anglia and the North West. In this context, RUG has been built as a stand-alone model (within MATLAB7) to allow a user to set most parameters through an interface; the choices being made either from personal knowledge or from expert judgment (predefined socio-economic scenarios). The RegIS2 contract does not include a proposal to model urban land use change but the previous RegIS project highlighted the major interests of regional stakeholders in urban land use planning. It was considered to be both appropriate and useful, therefore, to examine what could be achieved within the RegIS2 framework with a simple urban land use model, such as RUG, that allows exploration by planners of the environmental consequences of alternative urban development pathways.

AB - The primary objective of our Regional “Urban” Growth model (RUG) is to simulate, at a regional scale, the spatial evolution of urban and semi-urban land uses according to socio-economic scenarios that sketch individual preferences and regional planning options adopted within different future socio-economic contexts. The model considers urban land uses to be not only a function of location accessibility but also to depend on [hypoth. 1] location preferences, i.e. local externalities (Caruso et al., 2005), and [hypoth. 2] land use planning choices (Shackley and Deanwood, 2003).We built RUG as a residential model with no direct consideration of commercial, industrial, services or leisure land uses. In this framework, the term urban should be understood as any human settlement whether in cities, suburbs or rural zones. It is important to note that RUG does not aim to understand why people go to a particular location, but instead represents where people go when they make choices according to a particular set of goals and preferences. The three main steps followed to develop our model are : [1] the choice of the mathematical functions, [2] the tests and validation of the model structure and [3] the calibration with observed data in two regions of England . Subsequently, the RUG output is going to be used within the RegIS2 tool, to assess impacts on four regional sectors.This research mainly investigates the mathematical functions that best represent the mechanisms of residential location choice. The core of RUG is a combination of [1] an accessibility component, based on the well-known distance decay function, [2] a measure of individual preferences, based on local amenities, after Caruso et al. (2005) and [3] an original representation of the regional planning constraints that we propose. The result is a non-linear model based mainly on different types of exponential functions to combine the variables and their parameters.Monte Carlo-based uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are performed on the model, using SIMLAB 2.2, a public domain software developed by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission (Crosetto and Tarantola, 2001).Regional space is seen as a regular grid of cells of 1 km resolution. Both spatial and non-spatial data are used. Spatial data include [1] population location at baseline time ,[2] measures of location accessibility , [3] percentage of urban and semi-urban land uses and [4] location of potentially restricted areas . Non-spatial data include [1] the regional population at time t and [2] the occupancy rate (average number of people per household) at time t.First results give good confidence in the methodology, e.g. the modification of the local externality parameters returns various urban development patterns that are plausible.The resulting output product of RUG has been formatted in such a way that it can also be used as an input to the meta-models of the RegIS2 project, a scientific partnership of the University of Louvain and five British Universities . The objective of RegIS2 is the production of a computer tool which can be used by non scientists (planners and other stakeholders) to evaluate future climate and socio-economic change impacts on agriculture, biodiversity, hydrology and coastal zones in two regions of England, namely East Anglia and the North West. In this context, RUG has been built as a stand-alone model (within MATLAB7) to allow a user to set most parameters through an interface; the choices being made either from personal knowledge or from expert judgment (predefined socio-economic scenarios). The RegIS2 contract does not include a proposal to model urban land use change but the previous RegIS project highlighted the major interests of regional stakeholders in urban land use planning. It was considered to be both appropriate and useful, therefore, to examine what could be achieved within the RegIS2 framework with a simple urban land use model, such as RUG, that allows exploration by planners of the environmental consequences of alternative urban development pathways.

KW - Planning

KW - Regional scale

KW - Urban model

KW - Mathematical development

KW - Urban and semi-urban land use

KW - Local externalities

KW - Uncertainty analysis

KW - Sensitivity analysis

M3 - Abstract

ER -

Fontaine C. Simulating regional urban development under land use planning constraints. 2005. Abstract from European colloquium on Theoretical and Quantitative Geography, Tomar, Portugal.