@article{cd7aef34adcb44a587b51f039989871f,
title = "Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus",
abstract = "The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases—including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika—is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.",
author = "Kraemer, {Moritz U.G.} and Reiner, {Robert C.} and Brady, {Oliver J.} and Messina, {Jane P.} and Marius Gilbert and Pigott, {David M.} and Dingdong Yi and Kimberly Johnson and Lucas Earl and Marczak, {Laurie B.} and Shreya Shirude and {Davis Weaver}, Nicole and Donal Bisanzio and Perkins, {T. Alex} and Shengjie Lai and Xin Lu and Peter Jones and Coelho, {Giovanini E.} and Carvalho, {Roberta G.} and {Van Bortel}, Wim and Cedric Marsboom and Guy Hendrickx and Francis Schaffner and Moore, {Chester G.} and Nax, {Heinrich H.} and Linus Bengtsson and Erik Wetter and Tatem, {Andrew J.} and Brownstein, {John S.} and Smith, {David L.} and Louis Lambrechts and Simon Cauchemez and Catherine Linard and Faria, {Nuno R.} and Pybus, {Oliver G.} and Scott, {Thomas W.} and Qiyong Liu and Hongjie Yu and Wint, {G. R.William} and Hay, {Simon I.} and Nick Golding",
note = "Funding Information: The authors thank S. Ray for providing comments during the revision process. M.U.G.K. acknowledges funding from the Society in Science, The Branco Weiss Fellowship, administered by the ETH Zurich. M.U.G.K. also acknowledges funding from the Training Grant from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (T32HD040128). M.U.G.K., S.I.H., J.P.M., N.G., O.J.B. and G.R.W.W. acknowledge funding from the International Research Consortium on Dengue Risk Assessment Management and Surveillance (IDAMS; European Commission 7th Framework Programme no. 21893). O.B.J. was funded by a Sir Henry Wellcome Fellowship funded by the Wellcome Trust (grant number 206471/Z/17/Z) and a grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OP1183567). S.I.H. received a grant from the Research for Health in Humanitarian Crises (R2HC) Programme, managed by Enhancing Learning and Research for Humanitarian Assistance (ELRHA; no. 13468), which also supported M.U.G.K. and N.G. The R2HC programme aims to improve health outcomes by strengthening the evidence base for public health interventions in humanitarian crises. The £8 million R2HC programme is funded equally by the Wellcome Trust and Department of International Development (DFiD), with ELRHA overseeing the programme{\textquoteright}s execution and management. S.I.H. was also funded by a Senior Research Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (no. 95066) and grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1106023, OPP1093011, OPP1132415 and OPP1159934). This study was made possible by the support of the American people through the US Agency for International Development Emerging Pandemic Threats Program-2 PREDICT-2 (Cooperative Agreement number AID-OAA-A-14-00102), which also supported M.U.G.K. J.S.B. is supported by the National Library of Medicine of the National Institutes of Health (R01LM010812 and R01LM011965), which also supports M.U.G.K. D.L.S. is funded by the National Institutes of Health and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (no. U10AI089674). H.H.N. was funded by the European Commission through the European Research Council Advanced Investigator Grant {\textquoteleft}Momentum{\textquoteright} 324247. L.L. received funding from the French Government{\textquoteright}s Investissement d{\textquoteright}Avenir program, Laboratoire d{\textquoteright}Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche (grant ANR-16-CE35-0004), the City of Paris Emergence(s) programme in Biomedical Research, and the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under ZikaPLAN grant agreement No. 734584. S.C. received funding from the AXA Research Fund, the Investissement d{\textquoteright}Avenir program, the Laboratoire d{\textquoteright}Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (Grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005), and the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under ZIKAlliance grant agreement No 734548. N.G. is supported by a University of Melbourne McKenzie fellowship. W.V.B., G.H. and F.S. acknowledge funding from VBORNET and VectorNet, an ECDC and EFSA-funded project (no. ECDC/09/018 and OC/EFSA/AHAW/2013/02), and thank all contributing VBORNET and VectorNet experts for data sharing. T.W.S., R.C.R. and L.L. received funding from the National Institutes of Health Program Project grant (no. P01 AI098670). X.L. is supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (71771213, 71522014, 71725001, 91846301 and 71790615). This work was also partially supported by the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under ZIKAlliance Grant Agreement no. 734548. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",
year = "2019",
month = may,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1038/s41564-019-0376-y",
language = "English",
volume = "4",
pages = "854--863",
journal = "Nature Microbiology",
issn = "2058-5276",
publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",
number = "5",
}