Modelling pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) wintering distributions for the year 2050: Potential effects of land-use change in Europe

M. Wisz, J. Madsen, M. Jespersen, N. Dendoncker, M. Rounsevell, E. Kuijken, W. Courtens, C. Verscheure, F. Cottaar

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    Abstract

    Feeding on farmland by overwintering populations of pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) conflicts with agricultural interests in Northern Europe. In order to forecast the potential future of this conflict, we used generalized linear models to relate the presence and absence of pink-footed geese to variables describing the contemporary landscape, and predicted their future distributions in relation to two land-use scenarios for the year 2050. One future scenario represented a global, economically orientated world (A1) and the other represented a regional, environmentally concerned world (B2). The probability of goose occurrence increased within cropland and grassland, and could be explained by their proximity to coast, elevation, and the degree of habitat closure. Predictions to future scenarios revealed noticeable shifts in the suitability of goose habitat evident at the local and regional scale in response to future shifts in land use. In particular, as grasslands and croplands give way to unsuitable land-use types (e.g. woody biofuel crops, increased urbanization, and forest) under both future scenarios, our models predicted a decrease in habitat suitability for geese. If coupled with continued goose population expansion, we expect that the agricultural conflict will intensify under the A1 and particularly the B2 scenarios.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)721-731
    Number of pages11
    JournalDiversity and Distributions
    Volume14
    Issue number5
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2008

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