TY - JOUR
T1 - Modalities and preferred routes of geographic spread of cholera from endemic areas in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo
AU - Ntumba Kayembe, Harry César
AU - Bompangue, Didier
AU - Linard, Catherine
AU - Muwonga, Jérémie
AU - Moutschen, Michel
AU - Situakibanza, Hippolyte
AU - Ozer, Pierre
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Kayembe et al.
PY - 2022/2
Y1 - 2022/2
N2 - Cholera is endemic along the Great Lakes Region, in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). From these endemic areas, also under perpetual conflicts, outbreaks spread to other areas. However, the main routes of propagation remain unclear. This research aimed to explore the modalities and likely main routes of geographic spread of cholera from endemic areas in eastern DRC. We used historical reconstruction of major outbreak expansions of cholera since its introduction in eastern DRC, maps of distribution and spatiotemporal cluster detection analyses of cholera data from passive surveillance (2000–2017) to describe the spread dynamics of cholera from eastern DRC. Four modalities of geographic spread and their likely main routes from the source areas of epidemics to other areas were identified: in endemic eastern provinces, and in non-endemic provinces of eastern, central and western DRC. Using non-parametric statistics, we found that the higher the number of conflict events reported in eastern DRC, the greater the geographic spread of cholera across the country. The present study revealed that the dynamics of the spread of cholera follow a fairly well-defined spatial logic and can therefore be predicted.
AB - Cholera is endemic along the Great Lakes Region, in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). From these endemic areas, also under perpetual conflicts, outbreaks spread to other areas. However, the main routes of propagation remain unclear. This research aimed to explore the modalities and likely main routes of geographic spread of cholera from endemic areas in eastern DRC. We used historical reconstruction of major outbreak expansions of cholera since its introduction in eastern DRC, maps of distribution and spatiotemporal cluster detection analyses of cholera data from passive surveillance (2000–2017) to describe the spread dynamics of cholera from eastern DRC. Four modalities of geographic spread and their likely main routes from the source areas of epidemics to other areas were identified: in endemic eastern provinces, and in non-endemic provinces of eastern, central and western DRC. Using non-parametric statistics, we found that the higher the number of conflict events reported in eastern DRC, the greater the geographic spread of cholera across the country. The present study revealed that the dynamics of the spread of cholera follow a fairly well-defined spatial logic and can therefore be predicted.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85124331660&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0263160
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0263160
M3 - Article
C2 - 35130304
AN - SCOPUS:85124331660
SN - 1932-6203
VL - 17
JO - PLoS ONE
JF - PLoS ONE
IS - 2 February
M1 - e0263160
ER -