Skip to main navigation Skip to search Skip to main content

Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis

  • Leonardo Angeli
  • , Constantino Pereira Caetano
  • , Nicolas Franco
  • , Pietro Coletti
  • , Christel Faes
  • , Geert Molenberghs
  • , Philippe Beutels
  • , Steven Abrams
  • , Lander Willem
  • , Niel Hens

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

14 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Understanding the evolving role of different age groups in virus transmission is essential for effective pandemic management. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Belgium from November 2020 to February 2022, focusing on age-specific patterns. Using a next generation matrix approach integrating social contact data and simulating population susceptibility evolution, we performed a longitudinal perturbation analysis of the effective reproduction number to unravel age-specific transmission dynamics. From November to December 2020, adults in the [18, 60) age group were the main transmission drivers, while children contributed marginally. This pattern shifted between January and March 2021, when in-person education resumed, and the Alpha variant emerged: children aged under 12 years old were crucial in transmission. Stringent social distancing measures in March 2021 helped diminish the noticeable contribution of the [18, 30) age group. By June 2021, as the Delta variant became the predominant strain, adults aged [18, 40) years emerged as main contributors to transmission, with a resurgence in children’s contribution during September-October 2021. This study highlights the effectiveness of our methodology in identifying age-specific transmission patterns.
Original languageEnglish
Article number2230
JournalNature Communications
Volume16
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Mar 2025

Funding

L.A., P.B., and N.H. acknowledge funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme \u2013 project EpiPose (Grant agreement number 101003688) and the ESCAPE project (101095619), both funded by the European Union. N.H. further acknowledges support from the VERDI project (101045989), also funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Health and Digital Executive Agency (HADEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible. L.A. and N.H. acknowledge funding from the Special Research Fund through the Methusalem project BOF08M01 - phase III. C.P.C. acknowledges the funding by Funda\u00E7\u00E3o para a Ci\u00EAncia e a Tecnologia (FCT.BD). L.W. and S.A. acknowledge support from the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) (ACCELERATE project G059423N). CoMix data collection in Belgium was made possible through funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose (Grant agreement number 101003688), and with financial support from the National Public Health Institute of Belgium, Sciensano and Janssen Pharmaceuticals. This work reflects only the authors\u2019 view. We extend our gratitude to the research teams at the University of Antwerp, Hasselt University, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, involved in the CoMix study within the EpiPose project, for their invaluable contribution in designing the survey and processing, curating, and collecting the social contact data utilised in our study. L.A., P.B., and N.H. acknowledge funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme \u2013 project EpiPose (Grant agreement number 101003688) and the ESCAPE project (101095619), both funded by the European Union.\u00A0N.H. further acknowledges support from the VERDI project (101045989), also funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Health and Digital Executive Agency (HADEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible. L.A. and N.H. acknowledge funding from the Special Research Fund through the Methusalem project BOF08M01 - phase III. C.P.C. acknowledges the funding by Funda\u00E7\u00E3o para a Ci\u00EAncia e a Tecnologia (FCT.BD). L.W. and S.A. acknowledge support from the Research Foundation Flanders (FWO) (ACCELERATE project G059423N). CoMix data collection in Belgium was made possible through funding from the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme - project EpiPose (Grant agreement number 101003688), and with financial support from the National Public Health Institute of Belgium, Sciensano and Janssen Pharmaceuticals. This work reflects only the authors\u2019 view. We extend our gratitude to the research teams at the University of Antwerp, Hasselt University, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, involved in the CoMix study within the EpiPose project, for their invaluable contribution in designing the survey and processing, curating, and collecting the social contact data utilised in our study.

FundersFunder number
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
European Health and Digital Executive Agency
FCT.BD
University of Antwerpen
UHasselt
National Public Health Institute of Belgium, Sciensano and Janssen Pharmaceuticals
European Commission101045989
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme101095619, 101003688
Bijzonder Onderzoeksfonds UGentBOF08M01
Fonds Wetenschappelijk OnderzoekG059423N

    Access to Document

    Other files and links

      Fingerprint

      Dive into the research topics of 'Assessing the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium using perturbation analysis'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.
      View full fingerprint

      Cite this