An Agent-based approach to model future residential pressure on a regional landscape

C.M. Fontaine, M.D.A. Rounsevell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This paper presents a framework to model future residential demand for housing in a polycentric region. The model, called HI-LIFE (Household Interactions through LIFE cycle stages), builds on Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigms. In contrast to traditional equilibrium-based urban economics models that assume a homogenous population of rational actors, ABM focuses on the diversity of heterogeneous household agents and their behaviour in time and in space. The model simulates land-use patterns at the regional scale by integrating qualitative knowledge of agent location preferences with quantitative analysis of urban growth dynamics within a high resolution spatial modelling framework. The model was calibrated for the region of East Anglia in the UK using a semi-quantitative procedure. Simulation of urban dynamics for the future was undertaken for a 25 year period with the assumption of a continuation of baseline behavioural trends. The results demonstrated non-uniform, spatial patterns of urban sprawl with some locations experiencing greater urban development pressure than others. The town of Brundall, in particular, has a large potential demand for residential housing because of its proximity to the principle city, Norwich. As Brundall is also located close to a national park and a river, new housing development in this area would increase the risk of ecological impacts and flood damage. By modelling explicitly agent behaviour and interactions, ABM can simulate the response and adaptation strategies of a population to changing circumstances. This makes ABM especially well suited to the analysis of environmental change and landscape ecology pressures through scenario modelling.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1237-1254
Number of pages18
JournalLandscape Ecology
Volume24
Issue number9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2009

Fingerprint

modeling
housing
urban sprawl
housing development
demand
economic model
interaction
national park
urban development
ecology
natural disaster
damages
land use
town
river
flood damage
paradigm
scenario
landscape ecology
ecological impact

Cite this

@article{8da7e5be4103433d972a0c4a5f9804c0,
title = "An Agent-based approach to model future residential pressure on a regional landscape",
abstract = "This paper presents a framework to model future residential demand for housing in a polycentric region. The model, called HI-LIFE (Household Interactions through LIFE cycle stages), builds on Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigms. In contrast to traditional equilibrium-based urban economics models that assume a homogenous population of rational actors, ABM focuses on the diversity of heterogeneous household agents and their behaviour in time and in space. The model simulates land-use patterns at the regional scale by integrating qualitative knowledge of agent location preferences with quantitative analysis of urban growth dynamics within a high resolution spatial modelling framework. The model was calibrated for the region of East Anglia in the UK using a semi-quantitative procedure. Simulation of urban dynamics for the future was undertaken for a 25 year period with the assumption of a continuation of baseline behavioural trends. The results demonstrated non-uniform, spatial patterns of urban sprawl with some locations experiencing greater urban development pressure than others. The town of Brundall, in particular, has a large potential demand for residential housing because of its proximity to the principle city, Norwich. As Brundall is also located close to a national park and a river, new housing development in this area would increase the risk of ecological impacts and flood damage. By modelling explicitly agent behaviour and interactions, ABM can simulate the response and adaptation strategies of a population to changing circumstances. This makes ABM especially well suited to the analysis of environmental change and landscape ecology pressures through scenario modelling.",
author = "C.M. Fontaine and M.D.A. Rounsevell",
year = "2009",
month = "10",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1007/s10980-009-9378-0",
language = "English",
volume = "24",
pages = "1237--1254",
journal = "Landscape Ecology",
issn = "0921-2973",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",
number = "9",

}

An Agent-based approach to model future residential pressure on a regional landscape. / Fontaine, C.M.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.

In: Landscape Ecology, Vol. 24, No. 9, 01.10.2009, p. 1237-1254.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - An Agent-based approach to model future residential pressure on a regional landscape

AU - Fontaine, C.M.

AU - Rounsevell, M.D.A.

PY - 2009/10/1

Y1 - 2009/10/1

N2 - This paper presents a framework to model future residential demand for housing in a polycentric region. The model, called HI-LIFE (Household Interactions through LIFE cycle stages), builds on Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigms. In contrast to traditional equilibrium-based urban economics models that assume a homogenous population of rational actors, ABM focuses on the diversity of heterogeneous household agents and their behaviour in time and in space. The model simulates land-use patterns at the regional scale by integrating qualitative knowledge of agent location preferences with quantitative analysis of urban growth dynamics within a high resolution spatial modelling framework. The model was calibrated for the region of East Anglia in the UK using a semi-quantitative procedure. Simulation of urban dynamics for the future was undertaken for a 25 year period with the assumption of a continuation of baseline behavioural trends. The results demonstrated non-uniform, spatial patterns of urban sprawl with some locations experiencing greater urban development pressure than others. The town of Brundall, in particular, has a large potential demand for residential housing because of its proximity to the principle city, Norwich. As Brundall is also located close to a national park and a river, new housing development in this area would increase the risk of ecological impacts and flood damage. By modelling explicitly agent behaviour and interactions, ABM can simulate the response and adaptation strategies of a population to changing circumstances. This makes ABM especially well suited to the analysis of environmental change and landscape ecology pressures through scenario modelling.

AB - This paper presents a framework to model future residential demand for housing in a polycentric region. The model, called HI-LIFE (Household Interactions through LIFE cycle stages), builds on Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigms. In contrast to traditional equilibrium-based urban economics models that assume a homogenous population of rational actors, ABM focuses on the diversity of heterogeneous household agents and their behaviour in time and in space. The model simulates land-use patterns at the regional scale by integrating qualitative knowledge of agent location preferences with quantitative analysis of urban growth dynamics within a high resolution spatial modelling framework. The model was calibrated for the region of East Anglia in the UK using a semi-quantitative procedure. Simulation of urban dynamics for the future was undertaken for a 25 year period with the assumption of a continuation of baseline behavioural trends. The results demonstrated non-uniform, spatial patterns of urban sprawl with some locations experiencing greater urban development pressure than others. The town of Brundall, in particular, has a large potential demand for residential housing because of its proximity to the principle city, Norwich. As Brundall is also located close to a national park and a river, new housing development in this area would increase the risk of ecological impacts and flood damage. By modelling explicitly agent behaviour and interactions, ABM can simulate the response and adaptation strategies of a population to changing circumstances. This makes ABM especially well suited to the analysis of environmental change and landscape ecology pressures through scenario modelling.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=70350349131&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10980-009-9378-0

DO - 10.1007/s10980-009-9378-0

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:70350349131

VL - 24

SP - 1237

EP - 1254

JO - Landscape Ecology

JF - Landscape Ecology

SN - 0921-2973

IS - 9

ER -